A platform for monitoring COVID
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PRACRITI is an acronym for PRediction and Assessment of CoRona Infections and Transmission in India. It is a web-based dashboard that gives details of state and district wise predictions of COVID-19 transmission in the country. The dashboard also takes into account different lockdown scenarios and how the transmission will be affected if the lockdown conditions are changed. This is important to develop the prevention and mitigation strategies for COVID-19. The predictions are updated on a weekly basis to account for any variations in India including changes in the government policies. The COVID-19 predictions are based on a recent mathematical model, namely, Adaptive, Interacting, Cluster-based, Susceptible, Exposed, Infected, Removed (AICSEIR) model. This is a modified form of the traditional SEIR model2 and it caters for the interactions that occur between sub-populations such as districts or states. It represents a more realistic approach towards prediction of COVID-19 trajectory than the traditional SEIR models.
PRACRITI is developed and maintained by a group of volunteers from , IIT Delhi,---, Mr. Hargun Singh Grover (UG), Mr. Ravinder (PhD), Dr. Amreen Jan (Postdoc), Mr. Sourabh Singh (UG), Mr. Suresh Bishnoi (UG), and Prof. N. M. Anoop Krishnan (PI), in collaboration with Prof. Hariprasad Kodamana (CAPS, IITD), and Prof. Amit Sharma (ICGEB, New Delhi). The dashboard uses different sources including MoHFW (https://www.mohfw.gov.in ), NDMA (http://gis.ndma.gov.in/arcgis/apps/sites/#/data) and www.covid19india.org for the data. This data is cross-checked against state-wise bulletins and other official sources
In an interview with Dr Vanita Srivastava of the Communication Cell, Hargun Singh Grover one of the volunteers and researcher elucidates on the dashboard, the future plans and more.
What motivated you to develop the dashboard?
To develop and prediction mitigation strategies for COVID-19, it is important to understand the exact scenario in each district and how the scenario can change if the lockdown conditions are changed. PRACRITI gives details of state and district wise predictions of COVID-19 transmission in the country which enables the authorities to know how to control and mitigate Coronavirus transmission in the country.
What were the main challenges that you faced?
The efficiency of the predictions depends on data available and assumptions taken into account into the model. It is possible to predict for the near future but for a longer duration, it poses difficulties as dynamics of the disease and its transmission change with time. Hence, constant upgradation of the model is important.
What are your future plans?
We plan to update the predictions on a weekly basis to account for any variations in India including changes in the government policies, different lockdown strategies implemented, weather variations, testing kits availability, and development of any remedial measures.